Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is polling as high as the low twenties in a three-way race with President Joe Biden and Donald Trump, and is sure to attract an additional burst of publicity when he announces his vice presidential candidate next week in California.
But his ability to generate buzz won’t have much value unless Kennedy is able to get his name on ballots across the country in November.
At the moment, his prospects are looking dicey.
Ballot access is a complicated and expensive endeavor that will require gathering hundreds of thousands of signatures across the country. And Kennedy will have to contend with determined opposition from the Democratic Party and outside groups that are trying to thwart his efforts out of fear that he could play spoiler and swing the election to Trump.
His campaign is officially on the ballot in one state so far — Utah. But it says it has collected enough signatures to also qualify in Nevada, Hawaii and New Hampshire. American Values 2024, a pro-Kennedy super PAC, says it has collected enough signatures to get him on the ballot in Michigan, South Carolina, Arizona and Georgia.
Even if he got on the ballot in just a handful of those states — say, Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire — Kennedy could have a significant effect on the outcome in November. Both major-party campaigns know it.
“The ballot access issue is a real loser for the [Democratic National Committee],” said Tony Lyons, a co-founder of American Values 2024. “I think they are going to lose a lot of voters who actually care about democracy.”
But it’s important to keep in mind there’s a big difference between meeting signature requirements and actually getting a candidate on the ballot. Every state has different ballot access laws, creating a minefield of legal minutiae and statutory levers that those opposing ballot access can use to try and keep a candidate off the ticket. It’s a long and circuitous process.
“The issue is not getting the signatures,” said Richard Winger, a ballot access professional who is the publisher and founder of Ballot Access News. “It’s the chance that some tiny little thing could go wrong.”
In the past week the Democratic Party and other outside groups have put together a team to oppose third-party and independent candidates, a sign that Democrats are ready to fight back against candidacies they perceive as spoiler threats, like Kennedy.
The effort is staffed by longtime operatives like communications consultant Lis Smith, who helped guide Pete Buttigieg’s 2020 presidential campaign, and Dana Remus, who until recently served as Biden’s White House counsel, underscoring the seriousness of the concern.
The Democratic National Committee calls Kennedy a “stalking horse” who will increase Trump’s chances of winning in November. They point to significant contributions from Timothy Mellon, a Trump mega donor, to American Values 2024, and to lingering concerns that in 2016 third-party candidates may have tipped the presidency to Trump.
While Democratic attention was initially directed toward the wide array of third-party contenders, such as independent Cornel West and the No Labels coalition, Kennedy has become the focus of more energy as of late.
“We’re expecting a close election in 2024 and we are going to be prepared for every contingency,” said Matt Corridoni, a DNC spokesperson. “This includes making sure independent and third party candidates play by the rules.”
A new outside group of Biden allies, the Clear Choice super PAC, has also formed and is aimed at stopping any independent or third-party candidates from challenging the anti-Trump coalition, according to the Washington Post.
Kennedy is fighting back against some of these efforts. In some states, his campaign has filed lawsuits to give his team more time to collect signatures. And Kennedy has sought to start new political parties in six states to improve his chances of getting on the ballot — in some states, it’s easier to get on the ballot by registering voters for an entirely new political party.
But one group Kennedy won’t be able to count on for ballot access support anymore is American Values 2024. Lyons told Nightly that the pro-Kennedy super PAC was transitioning into creating a series of ads supporting Kennedy’s candidacy — including one 30-minute infomercial — that the group will begin releasing in the next three weeks. Lyons said the ad buy would aim to break through with Baby Boomers who may be less aware of Kennedy and would be in the $10 million to $20 million range.
Russell Verney, a former advisor to Ross Perot’s two independent presidential campaigns in the 1990s, said Kennedy faces a tough road ahead.
“It’s a big hurdle to get on the ballot in states across the country,” said Verney, who managed Perot’s 1996 effort. “The Republicans and Democrats don’t like competition, so every time an independent candidate comes in the main parties increase the barriers to get on the ballot.”