New Polls Show Kennedy a Growing Threat to Biden and Trump
Adam Garrie | May 1, 2024
By Adam Garrie, The Kennedy Beacon
A new CNN/SSRS poll shows that independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. poses a serious threat to “dual incumbents” President Biden and former president Trump.
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The new poll demonstrates the growing phenomenon of “double hatred” in which voters show little enthusiasm for the candidates of the Democratic and Republican parties.
Another more striking poll, on the entertainment news outlet TMZ, found that if Biden is not in the race Kennedy receives 64% to Trump’s 36% – underscoring a narrative that Kennedy can beat Trump head-to-head. The poll doesn’t have any data on whether Biden can beat Trump in a head-to-head contest, since it omits the typical Trump vs Biden option that appears on most polls.
The TMZ poll is a rolling poll that thus far has surveyed over 74,000 people. It’s unique in that it pits Biden vs. Kennedy in one hypothetical race, finding Biden at 52% with Kennedy at 48% of 74,134 total votes. Its two-way poll of Trump vs. Kennedy has so far received 71,409 total votes.
TMZ’s poll is non-scientific and open to readers of TMZ’s website around the world. Unlike professional polling companies, people under 18 and non-US citizens can vote. Furthermore, TMZ readers can vote in the poll multiple times from the same IP address.
However, much like the social media polls that Elon Musk has used to determine corporate policy at X, it is likely that the data reflects genuine sentiments among TMZ’s readers.
On an issue-by-issue basis, polls show things are especially dismal for Biden as voters strongly disapprove of his handling of all major issues while expressing their greatest apprehensions about the state of the economy and the crisis at the southern border. Like a majority of voters polled, Kennedy is a fierce critic of the economic and border policy of the Biden administration.
According to the CNN/SSRS poll, Kennedy is at 16% in a five way race that includes independent candidate Cornel West at 4% and Green party candidate Jill Stein at 3%. This poll compounded troubles for Biden who stood at 33% while Trump was at 42%. In a two-way poll, Trump is also ahead of the 81-year-old sitting president.
The poll further found that Kennedy takes an equal number of votes from Biden and Trump when individuals polled are given the option of a multi-candidate ballot as opposed to a two-candidate ballot.
Of the voters expressing a dislike for Biden and Trump, 25% indicated a desire to vote for someone other than the Democratic and Republican candidates.
According to data from Similarweb, TMZ’s website had 55.4 million visits in the first quarter of 2024, 78% of which were from US IP addresses. 24% of TMZ readers are between the ages of 35 and 44 while 23% fall between the ages of 25 and 34. TMZ readers are roughly evenly distributed between men and women.
Polls Swing in Kennedy’s Favor in Michigan and Pennsylvania
The positive trends for Kennedy follow opinions expressed in SSRS polls commissioned by CNN. These reveal independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. surging to historic highs not achieved by any independent or third party candidate since Ross Perot’s historic 1992 run.
In a boost to campaign visibility, the polls confirm that Kennedy has exceeded the 15% threshold required by The Commission on Presidential Debates for participation in this year’s debates. While it is unclear if President Biden and former president Trump will agree to debate each other, Kennedy has said that he is more than willing to debate both.
The unique SSRS polls focused on Michigan and Pennsylvania, two of the most important swing states going into the general election.
In a hypothetical four-way contest between President Biden, former president Trump, Kennedy, and Professor Cornel West, Kennedy received 18% of total votes in Michigan and 16% of total votes in Pennsylvania.
Among young voters, Kennedy’s numbers were even higher. According to the CNN poll, 22% of voters ages 18-34 support Kennedy in Michigan, while 20% do so in Pennsylvania. Kennedy also polls above his total average among female voters and voters of color.
The poll found that nearly half of all independent voters and nearly half of young voters in Michigan remain undecided as the phenomenon of “double hatred” is dissuading these cohorts from supporting either candidate from the legacy parties. These numbers are also significant in Pennsylvania.
As of late March, 27% of independents in Michigan support Kennedy while a nearly identical percentage do so in Pennsylvania. These numbers are likely to grow given the trajectory of dissatisfaction with Joe Biden and Donald Trump among these important groups that could sway an election in two states where contests remain tight across multiple polls.
The new polls indicate that Kennedy could achieve 34% of the Michigan and Pennsylvania vote, making it possible for him to take key electoral college votes away from Trump and Biden in those swing states.
Since the release of these polls, Kennedy has officially qualified to be on the Michigan ballot after receiving the nomination of the state’s Natural Law Party, as reported in The Kennedy Beacon; and he has also qualified for the California ballot, under the American Independent Party of California, as of April 29, as also reported in The Kennedy Beacon.
Kennedy is officially qualified for the ballot in Utah and Iowa and he has completed signature collection in seven additional states: New Hampshire, Nevada, Hawaii, North Carolina, Idaho, Texas and Nebraska. He is aggressively pursuing ballot access in all 50 states.
With the general election six months away, for the first time in decades the race for the presidency is shaping up to pit three, not two, uniquely different candidates against each other. Still, there’s much uncertainty. November’s vote is everyone’s to win and anyone’s to lose.
